BTC Current Affairs

Bitcoin's 'Real' Bull Market May Already Be Behind It, Yield-Adjusted Charts Suggest

2026-07-23

Bitcoin has clawed back above $65,000 in recent sessions, reviving talk of a fresh bull run toward new records. But a widely followed CoinDesk newsletter analysis published July 22 argues that the celebration may be premature once the cost of capital is factored in — and a resurgent oil shock tied to the Iran war could be the trigger that forces a reset.

The argument, laid out in CoinDesk's "Crypto Daybook Americas," rests on a simple adjustment: dividing bitcoin's dollar price by the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. On that basis, both the BTC/US10Y and Nasdaq/US10Y ratios have failed to exceed their 2020-2021 peaks even though both assets have notched fresh nominal all-time highs over the past year. The implication is that, once the cost of capital is stripped out, the "true" macro top for both bitcoin and big tech may still be sitting in 2021 — not in whatever record was set more recently. That divergence can only resolve two ways: interest rates fall sharply, or nominal prices fall to realign with the weaker yield-adjusted trend.

The newsletter leans toward the latter outcome, citing two forces working against bitcoin bulls. First is the tone coming out of the Federal Reserve. Chair Kevin Warsh, in his debut FOMC meeting on June 17, held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% but delivered what markets read as a distinctly hawkish message, with nine of eighteen FOMC participants penciling in at least one rate hike for 2026 — a sharp reversal from earlier projections that leaned toward cuts. CNBC reported that market veteran Ed Yardeni said he was "blown away" by Warsh's remarks, having expected a dove who favored lower rates because of AI-driven productivity gains, but instead getting "a strict, orthodox message on inflation with a strong commitment to price stability." Odds of a July or September hike jumped in the wake of that meeting, with CNBC noting the probability of an increase at the July 28-29 meeting quickly climbed to about 1 in 3, while odds for a September hike spiked to 67% according to CME's FedWatch tool.

The second, more immediate pressure point is energy. The Israel-Iran conflict has repeatedly disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, and oil has surged again this week. CNBC reported that oil prices were almost 4% higher Wednesday following an 11th consecutive round of U.S. strikes against Iran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying the Strait of Hormuz remains a sticking point, alleging Iran "demands the right" to control the waterway. Brent crude, per CNBC, traded 3.5% higher at $94.20 while U.S. WTI crude rose 3.8% to $87.56. Bloomberg's markets newsletter had already flagged the knock-on effect for Fed policy a week earlier, reporting that following a spike in oil prices and hawkish commentary from Fed officials, traders saw a nearly 50% chance of a July rate hike, up sharply from prior odds.

CoinDesk's own markets desk connected the dots directly to bitcoin's price action Wednesday, reporting that bitcoin fell below $66,000 after reaching its highest level in over a month on Tuesday as surging oil prices reignited inflation concerns, with WTI crude topping $85 per barrel for the first time since June 12 as the Iran conflict escalated. That pullback came alongside a rotation toward safety within crypto itself: CoinDesk noted bitcoin's dominance climbed to 59% as capital retreated from altcoins and stablecoins, a classic risk-off signal even as the top cryptocurrency itself dipped.

Separate analysis from CryptoSlate underscored why the oil-inflation-rates chain matters so much for bitcoin specifically, noting that investors have priced in a higher federal funds rate path starting in 2026, lifting real interest rates and Treasury yields — a setup that normally weighs on bitcoin because cash and Treasuries pay more when rates climb while bitcoin yields zero.

Taken together, the pattern CoinDesk's Daybook newsletter flags — bitcoin's ratio to WTI crude declining even as its dollar price bounces from $58,000 toward $66,000 — fits a broader narrative confirmed across multiple outlets this week: oil is currently outperforming even aggressive risk assets, a classic precursor to cost-push inflation. Whether that forces the "snap adjustment" the newsletter warns of will likely hinge on how the Fed's July 28-29 meeting, and the trajectory of the Iran conflict, play out in the coming weeks.

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