Robinhood Courting Crypto.com to Turbocharge Prediction Markets

Robinhood is chatting with Crypto.com about a partnership that would let Robinhood users trade on Crypto.com's prediction markets without leaving the app. The Wall Street Journal reported this on July 24. It's exactly the kind of infrastructure play that makes Robinhood's strategy obvious: dominate the event contracts space before regulators slam the door.

The numbers tell you why they're pushing so hard. Robinhood shifted more than 16 billion event contracts across its platform in 2026, up from 12 billion the year before. When the Prediction Markets Hub launched in 2025 (partnered with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated outfit), it did 11 to 12 billion contracts in its first year. That's real volume. Real money. Prediction market revenue actually started competing with crypto trading revenue in certain quarters.

The company's already got a foothold. Beyond Kalshi, they've partnered with ForecastEx and Rotella to spread offerings across the board. They also went deeper by partnering with Susquehanna, the quant firm, to build their own CFTC-licensed futures and derivatives exchange — which went live in early 2026. Now they want Crypto.com's OG platform (launched February 2026) plugged into their ecosystem. Strategic timing, given Crypto.com is positioning itself as a direct competitor.

Crypto.com has incentive to play ball. Robinhood has north of 27 million funded accounts. Over one million of those people are actively trading event contracts. If a deal happens, Crypto.com could see serious volume lift. But Kalshi? They're the ones getting squeezed. Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour already called Robinhood a leading competitor back in June. Since Rotella launched, Robinhood's share of Kalshi's trading volume has been shrinking. Adding Crypto.com would pressure them harder.

Wall Street's excited. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani reckons Q2 could be the first quarter prediction markets beat crypto as a revenue line for Robinhood. He bumped his price target to $160 from $130. He's also forecasting prediction-market revenue hits $1.7 billion by 2028, a 64% jump from 2026. That's the kind of growth that gets traders paying attention.

But there's a wrinkle, naturally. Regulatory risk at the state level is the real threat. The legal status of sports-related contracts remains unresolved in multiple states. Some states are moving to block them outright, treating them as unlicensed gambling despite operators' argument that event contracts are financial products under CFTC jurisdiction. A string of adverse rulings could force product changes or even exits from key markets.

The talks are still fluid. No deal is done. Robinhood said they'll keep working with multiple exchanges anyway, trying to build a diverse marketplace for customers. What's clear is that prediction markets have moved from a side bet to the core growth driver. Crypto trading's been volatile and tepid. Event contracts are where Robinhood's building its future. The Crypto.com talks just show how serious they are.

Source & further reading:

• Robinhood in talks with Crypto.com over prediction markets: WSJ — Cointelegraph
• Russia’s largest bank Sberbank plans crypto trading infrastructure by December — CoinDesk
• North Korea arrests hackers accused of laundering stolen funds from country's bank via crypto — CoinDesk
• Democratizing weather derivatives through tokenization could be crypto's most important real-world use case — CoinDesk
• Robinhood Chain's real-world assets jump fivefold as tokenized stocks start trading in bigger size — CoinDesk
• Robinhood Discusses Prediction-Market Partnership With Crypto.com — BloomingBit
• Robinhood in talks to add Crypto.com prediction markets as Kalshi rivalry grows: WSJ — The Block
• Robinhood in talks with Crypto.com as prediction-markets race intensifies - WSJ — Investing.com
• Robinhood and Crypto.com are moving into prediction markets, and the money is already serious — Crypto Briefing
• Robinhood Prediction Market Revenue Set to Surpass Crypto, Analysts Say — Bloomberg