BTC Current Affairs

Standard Chartered's Kendrick Now Thinks $100K Might Be Too Conservative for Bitcoin

2026-08-21

Here's the thing about analyst forecasts: they age fast. Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick downgraded his year-end Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000 back in February 2026, warning of potential weakness ahead. Fair enough—macro was dodgy, ETFs were bleeding out, the Fed wasn't cutting rates. But in a Friday note, he's already questioning whether even that $100,000 call is too low. The recovery is accelerating. Institutional money is flowing back in. Things look different now.

The original February revision made sense at the time. Bitcoin had momentum problems. Kendrick specifically warned of a $50K dip first, citing sustained ETF outflows and a weakening structural setup. Then something shifted. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $126,000 in October—a clean reversal of that bearish thesis. Now, months later, Kendrick sees a plausible path back to those heights before 2026 closes.

Three drivers are pushing his thinking. Start with inflows. Bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows since mid-April when Bitcoin punched through $65,000, pulling in $853.54 million. On Wednesday alone, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw more than $517 million in net inflows—the largest single day since May 4. Analysts pin the rally on the U.S. Treasury's announcement to expand long bond buybacks, which injected fresh liquidity into the system. Institutional capital is trickling back after months of exodus.

Second, Kendrick flagged low open interest. That sounds technical, but here's the practical bit: it means room for more investors to pile in as prices climb. There's dry powder out there. When Bitcoin rallied recently, it liquidated $1.29 billion in short positions and delivered its steepest one-day climb since March. Those forced liquidations create momentum feedback loops. Shorts covering fuel further buying. It can run.

Third, the macro setup tilted. Treasury liquidity injections matter. The U.S. Treasury's buyback expansion is actively easing financial conditions. Kendrick flagged $65,500 as a crucial technical level—break above that and the cycle low is probably already in. We're at $77,000 now. That support holding changes the shape of scenarios. Bullish becomes plausible.

Of course, risks linger. The latest FOMC minutes showed a hawkish tilt, with some Fed members arguing for rate hikes if inflation doesn't cool. That's the always-present wrench in any bullish narrative. And let's be honest: Standard Chartered's track record on Bitcoin forecasts is mixed. The bank's published targets finished above Bitcoin's actual year-end price in 2023, 2024 and 2025, sometimes by considerable gaps. They've revised constantly as ETF flows, U.S. politics, corporate treasury buying and macro shifted. It's a reminder that nobody has the answers here.

Still, the broad picture is shifting. Bear-market foundations are cracking. ETF demand is returning, technical levels are holding, institutional optimism is creeping back. The ground between current levels and $100,000 and beyond is becoming contested territory. Whether Bitcoin actually retests that $126,000 all-time high depends on two things: continued ETF demand and whether the Fed stays supportive through year-end.

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